Can Russia conquer Europe? Here's a comparison
Between Moscow's military power and the E.U.
The danger of Russia's invasion of Europe is increasing again with the decline of American interest in the continent and the increase in the strength of the Russian army at the same time.
During the Cold War, the huge size of the Soviet forces was seen as a huge danger, and that Russia's invasion of Europe was difficult to stop except with nuclear weapons. The famous Leopard was designed to counter the possibility of a Russian invasion scenario in Europe.
Today, however, the threat of Russia's invasion of Europe has returned to insist on decision-makers on the continent and in the United States.
The combination of large size, advanced weapons, and new technology will result in a more serious threat, according to a report by the magazine American National Interest.
Why renewed danger of Russia's invasion of Europe?
During the 1980s, the Soviet Army had thousands of armored vehicles and nearly four million soldiers, and these capabilities represented a formidable, decades-old threat of a Russian-led Soviet invasion of Western Europe. This threat prompted the United States to deploy its soldiers on a large scale in Germany, increase the production of nuclear weapons and invent a group of now-famous American weapons such as the Abrams tank, Apache attack helicopters, and bombers. B-2 and F-15 fighter jets.
After the Cold War, the threat of Russia's invasion of Europe decreased significantly, and many European countries reduced their armies, anticipating a new era of peace on the continent.
In recent years, however, Russian military policies have grossly violated the obligations set out in the Helsinki Final Act to refrain from the threat or use of force against other states; And respect for the right of each country to choose its security alliances, as stated in a report by the Commission for Security and Cooperation in Europe"csc".
In non-NATO countries, Russia has proven that it is ready to use military force to achieve its goals, while in NATO countries, Moscow turns to asymmetric tactics, such as cyberattacks, sabotage, cover-up, and information warfare.
The 2014 Ukraine war, which ended with Moscow's annexation of Crimea and a de facto secession of two Ukrainian regions, demonstrated that Russia's invasion of Europe at least in part is a viable scenario, and it did not disappear with the disappearance of the Soviet Union.
The Russian army is smaller than the Soviet, but its efficiency is increasing
The Russian ground forces may be slightly smaller in number than the Soviet Army was during the Cold War era, but the technological development of their weapons such as the fighter The Su-57, the T-14 Armata tanks, and the S-400 air defense system, not to mention the hypersonic missiles and tactical nuclear weapons, poses an extremely dangerous and entirely new threat to the United States and NATO.
According to the siteglobalfirepower.com, The Russian Army has approximately one million active-duty personnel and approximately two million reservists. During the Cold War, the Russian army had between three and four million soldiers, but today's Russian forces are a serious concern.
The Russian army owns more than 4,000 aircraft and 1,500 helicopters. Russia also has 13,000 tanks, 27,000 armored fighting vehicles, and about 6,000 self-propelled guns in artillery, according to the website..Globalfirepower.com
While the traditional strength of the Russian army may not be as strong as its strength in the Cold War, it is keen to modernize and maintain parts of its weapons and automatic systems. For example, the Russian army developed the Russian tank The T-72 has been hit many times since it was first invented in the 1970s.
Most worrisome, especially for European security, is Russia's deployment of a new ground-launched medium-range cruise missile in violation of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and its modernization of a range of other non-strategic nuclear weapons.
What is clear is that Russia adopts the doctrine"Escalation to De-escalation". This official Russian doctrine suggests that Moscow resort to the use of nuclear weapons if nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction are used against Russia or any of its allies, or in the event of a conventional attack on Russia in which the existence of the Russian state is at stake. However, there have been suggestions that Moscow might consider the idea that it could use nuclear weapons to "de-escalate" a conventional conflict that did not include an attack on Russian soil, for example, after a Russian conventional attack on another country.
Russia is also modernizing its conventional military forces. While much of this appears to be replacing the old with the new, the Russian military clearly aims to enhance its ability to conduct offensive operations outside Russian territory, motivated in part by a desire to improve upon the underperformance of Russian forces demonstrated in Georgia in 2008.
Over the past three years, Russia appears to have deployed and operated a number of its new conventional weapons systems in Ukraine.
Finally, about naval power, the position ofGlobalfirepower.com reports that the Russian Navy has 600 ships, including an aircraft carrier, 15 destroyers, and 63 submarines. The Black Sea is a region of strategic importance to Russia in terms of economic and geopolitical considerations, as it guarantees Moscow's access to the Mediterranean.
The Mediterranean is a way for Russia to besiege Europe
The Mediterranean is an important component of Moscow's military strategy, providing the basin an access point to southern Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. In the eyes of the Russian elite, the Mediterranean is also an arena for great power competition with the United States and NATO. Through intelligent offshore asset augmentation and anti-access/area-denial strategies (A2/ AD), as well as through agents such as the Syrian regime's army, the Kremlin is striving to counter NATO's presence in the region and protect Russia's southern flank, Carnegie Europe reports.
In line with the geopolitical worldview of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Russian military leadership has firmly established a strong and ambitious strategic position in the Mediterranean.
Within a decade, Russia had emerged as a competitor to Europe's southern flank. In Syria, the Syrian war has greatly helped the Russian armed forces develop proven combat capabilities and test more than 200 new weapons.
Now, the infamous Russian steel arc extends into the Mediterranean and poses a potential threat to NATO's freedom of movement in this important region. In Libya, a combination of the Russian Air Force and private military contractors has provided the Kremlin with significant geopolitical clout.
The Russian role in Libya, through the alliance with Haftar and the presence of Wagner mercenaries and Russian warplanes, is also seen as a kind of encirclement of Europe through its weak side.
The most dangerous front between Russia and Europe
But the Black Sea region remains the easiest region for Russia to carry out large-scale military operations against the countries of this sea that allowing it to threaten and blackmail them.
Says a report of the European Council on Foreign Relations"ECFR" Western countries should increase the interoperability of their militaries with the armed forces of the Black Sea countries and improve the infrastructure they use to deploy reinforcements in the region.
This will allow them to respond to the Russian military escalation in kind and thus increase the risks for Moscow.
Domestic political factors are the main drivers of Russian policy toward Ukraine. After the years of recovery in Putin's first term, there was an economic downturn that prompted Putin, when he returned to the presidency in 2011, to stir up nationalist sentiments, dream of Russia's return as a great power, and anti-Americanism in his campaign. Ukraine is a model for exploiting external ambitions to distract the people from internal crises.
The Balkans are a European loophole that partly sympathizes with Moscow
The countries of the Western Balkans also remain, in the crosshairs of Russian influence processes, Serbia and Macedonia, in particular, are particularly vulnerable and the potential for a full-blown ethnic conflict in the Balkans is very high, countries historically linked to Russia and not bearing the traditional hatred of Russia held by the inhabitants of Eastern European regions subjected to direct Russian rule or threat.
The countries of the Western Balkans are outside NATO "It represents an opportunity for Russia."
The Baltic states, although members of NATO, are also at risk as the Kremlin sees the region as Russia's supposed sphere of influence, and believes it is Moscow's right to play A "special security role" in the region, according to a report from the Commission for Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE).
Europe vs Russia
The European members of NATO comprise more than 500 million people. Russia has a population of only 145 million people. Europeans are also healthier. The average life expectancy in Europe is around 82 years, while it is 72 years only in Russia (and even lower for men).).
The gross domestic product of NATO countries in Europe is more than $15 trillion. Russia's GDP is just $1.7 trillion, which is less than that of Italy alone, a magazine report says. American Foreign Policy.
Most important, European NATO members spend three to four times as much as Russia does on defense each year. In fact, Germany and France together spend more than Russia does, and Russia also directs some of what it spends on the defense of the Far East, its large nuclear arsenal, and its involvement in places like Syria.
Comparison of the military power of Russia and the European Union
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The European Union has 6,700 tanks, 48,971 armored fighting vehicles, 5,804 guns, and 1,069 multiple-launch missile systems.
While Russia has 15,400 tanks, 31,300 armored fighting vehicles, 10,597 cannons, and 3,793 multiple-launch missile systems, according to 2017 statistics.
Here appears a clear numerical superiority in favor of Russia in land weapons, and despite the obsolescence of many of the weapons of the Russian army against the armies of the European Union countries, it should be noted that there is an accelerated modernization process by Russia, in addition to the fact that many eastern European countries that are members of NATO, in particular, are suffering From the obsolescence of its weapons, as well as Ukraine, a strategic NATO partner.
Air forces
The European Union has 6,751 aircraft, including a group of leading combat aircraft such as the Rafale, Typhoon, Eurofighter, and F-16, in addition to some countries starting to buy American F-35 stealth fighters.
The Russian Air Force has 3,100 combat aircraft, including a multi-role fighter Sukhoi-35, Sukhoi-30, and the MiG-31 high-speed interceptor aircraft.
see report foreign Policy argues that Europe has the primary capacity to deter and ultimately defeat a Russian attack in Eastern Europe. Even today Britain and France have their own nuclear deterrent, and European defense industries produce some of the best conventional weapons in the world, including first-class tanks and artillery, impressive air-to-air missiles, advanced surface ships and submarines, and advanced fighters.
These figures show that Europe's defensive preparations have the initial ability to defend themselves, without even the American role.
Why can Russia outperform Europe?
On paper, there appears to be some parity between the European Union and Russia, with Russia excelling in armor and artillery while Europe excels in aviation, in addition to the presence of US forces in Europe and the supposed partnership with Ukraine.
But geography and politics play in favor of Moscow. The European regions bordering Russia are the weakest, the Black Sea region, where the largest country is Ukraine, whose land is already occupied by Moscow, and the Balkan region is fragmented and there is a renewed historical Russian influence, but the main weakness is the Baltic region, which includes about 6 Millions of people compared to about 150 million for Russia.
Analysts predict that any Russian invasion will target NATO's eastern flank, where Allied forces are the weakest on Earth. The Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - are particularly at risk, a magazine report says. American Forbes.
Despite NATO's superiority in the air, the alliance cannot stop Russian armor.
Across several war games using a wide range of expert participants playing on both sides, the longest time it took Russian forces to reach the outskirts of Tallinn, Estonia, and Riga, Latvia, is 60 hours.
In contrast, the relatively large and militarily powerful European countries, namely France, Italy and Germany are relatively far from Russia.
In the event of any Russian invasion of Europe, whether it targets the European Union or Ukraine, if the United States, which is already heading towards Asia, does not intervene to compete with China, it is unlikely that the large European countries such as Germany, France and Italy will fight for the sake of the small countries bordering Russia, which in turn are all weaker Much of Russia, even if allied together, and even if Poland joined it, which is a country of medium strength and size and adjacent to the Russian enclave of Kalingrad and has historical fears of Russia.
Germany prefers gas to tanks
And Germany, in particular, can represent the balancing military force of Russia, especially since it has a giant military industry, especially in the field of tanks that characterizes Moscow.
But Berlin has a historical sensitivity to the process of rebuilding its military power, and it is the country that most sought de-escalation with Russia after the annexation of Crimea, whether for fear of uncontrollable tension in Eastern Europe or for fear of affecting its common energy interests with Russia.
Conservative policies on the promotion of armaments became part of the internal German political orientations, whether because of moral or financial motives.
While France actually helps Russia by creating fake enmities for Europe
As for France, the only member of the European Union that possesses nuclear weapons, and it is the most major European country that pays lip service to build a common European defense and talking about European sovereignty, it is in fact completely far from Russia and does not feel its danger. It has two helicopter carriers before canceling this deal, which is the first in the history of the relationship between Europe and Russia before it was canceled due to Russia's annexation of Crimea.
On the contrary, Paris is trying to drag Europe away from the real concerns from Russia to France's electoral, ideological and colonial battles such as the dispute with Britain and Turkey. Paris has even sent planes and ships to conduct maneuvers with Greece against Turkey and is talking about building a base in Greece, and is trying to install Ankara as a NATO partner And the desire to join the European Union is an enemy of Europe, although it is clear that Turkey wants to be a partner and not an opponent of the European Union.
Also, the degree of military imbalance between Greece and Turkey that exists in favor of the latter, is not comparable to the massive imbalance between Moscow and its European neighbors, but Paris ignores the strategic gap that exists in favor of Russia and even seeks sometimes to ally with it, as happened in Libya; As the French policies in support of Haftar contributed to the consolidation of Russian influence in the country that represents the flank of southern Europe.
What does Russia want from Europe?
It is important to try to understand what Russia wants from Europe, as Moscow under Putin's leadership is pursuing several goals in Europe. First, the Kremlin is seeking a Russian sphere of influence – or "a sphere of distinct interests," as Dmitry Medvedev called it when he was Russia's president in 2008 – in the countries of the former Soviet Union, with the possible partial exception of the Baltic states..
Putin is not seeking to rebuild the Soviet Union, because the Russian economy is not ready to support the economies of other former Soviet countries. What the Russian leadership wants from its neighbors is for them to acquiesce in Moscow on issues that the Kremlin defines as key to Russian interests. This includes relations between those countries and institutions such as the European Union and NATO, according to a report by the Center Brookings American.
This means that there will not likely be a Russian invasion of Europe, but rather the waving of this card by Putin, in addition to the energy card to achieve influence and gains for Russia in Europe. The problem is that Europe's silence on this matter may lead to Russian intransigence. , may lead to Moscow trying to use the card of threatening to invade some European countries, a threat that may get out of control.