A promise that America did not keep 30 years ago.. the story of the "red line" that Putin set for Biden in Ukraine
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| Russian President Vladimir Putin |
"I do not accept red lines from anyone," a phrase that Joe Biden indirectly addressed to Vladimir Putin before their virtual meeting about the Russian build-up to invade Ukraine, bringing to mind the story of a promise to Moscow that Washington and NATO did not adhere to.
Amid US intelligence reports confirming that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine within weeks, US President Joe Biden is having a video call with his Russian counterpart. Vladimir PutinTuesday 7 December, its main focus will be the tense situation in Ukraine.
Last week, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warned his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, that Russia would face "serious consequences and a heavy price" from the United States and its European allies if it took another offensive action against Ukraine.
Another offensive action that appears to be a reference to Russia's 2014 occupation and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, subjecting Moscow to US and European sanctions, some of which are still in force.
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| Scud launcher |
And now Russia, according to reports that Moscow has not denied or confirmed, has mobilized tens of thousands of its soldiers near the Ukrainian border in the Donbas region, and American and Western intelligence reports say that the "Russian invasion" of Ukraine may begin in late January.
What is the story of Putin's red line?
Russian media reports indicate that Putin has set a "red line" regarding the US-led NATO canceling any plans that include the inclusion of Ukraine in the alliance and he will seek, during his virtual summit with Biden, to obtain an American promise to this effect.
"Biden will reiterate US concerns about Russian military activities on the border with Ukraine, and reiterate the United States' support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity," White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in a statement.".
While the Kremlin said that Biden and Putin will also discuss bilateral relations and the implementation of the agreements reached during the summit of the two leaders in Geneva in June. The exact timing of the call was not disclosed.
Ukrainian authorities said Russia has massed more than 94,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, citing intelligence reports that Moscow may be preparing for a large-scale military offensive at the end of January. US officials came to similar conclusions.
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| US President Joe Biden |
Biden said in statements to reporters on Friday, "We have been aware of Russia's actions for a long time, and I expect that we will have a long discussion with Putin," adding, "I do not accept red lines from anyone," according to Reuters, in an indirect response to the reports. The Russian, who said that Putin will brief Biden on the "red line" on Ukraine.
For his part, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that Washington is committed to ensuring that Ukraine has what it needs to protect its territory. He added that there is plenty of room for diplomacy and leadership to play a role in the Ukraine issue.
On September 1st, Biden met his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, at the White House, and Biden used code words that strongly signal NATO's push to new frontiers when he pledged to "support Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations" and America's commitment to supporting "Ukraine's full integration into Europe." He then announced a "new $60 million security assistance package" in addition to the $400 million in security assistance the United States has already provided to Ukraine this year.
30-year-old Russian "red line"
The story of the "red lines" between Russia and the United States dates back to the end of the Cold War between the former Soviet Union - which was leading the Warsaw Pact - and the Western camp and its military alliance "NATO" led by the United States.
And take a report for the site responsible Statecraft The American made this story in a report entitled "Putin draws a new red line to prevent NATO from expanding eastward to Ukraine," as it revealed classified the US, Soviet and European documents recently, US Secretary of State James Baker assured Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990 that NATO would not expand "one inch" east of Germany, and at that time, this was Russia's red line.
But thirty years later, on December 2, 2021, that red line shifted from an inch to about 965 kilometers, after Vladimir Putin said he was now seeking a promise that NATO would not expand eastward into Ukraine.
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| Mikhail Gorbachev |
After American assurances to Russia more than three decades ago, NATO expanded eastward through Hungary, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, and Poland. That distance is about 965 kilometers of broken pledges that brought the United States and NATO to the borders of Ukraine.
After Russia retreated 965 kilometers from the red line of the last leader of the Soviet Union, Gorbachev, Putin drew a new red line on December 2, seeking "reliable and long-term security guarantees", and that these guarantees "abandon any further NATO moves" The Atlantic to the east or the deployment of weapons that threaten us close to Russian territory".
Putin draws a red line on Ukraine
Putin is well aware that the red line has shifted to the east by 965 kilometers. At the Munich Conference on Security Policy in 2007, Putin asked in a speech to the world: "What happened to the pledges made by our Western partners after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact? Where are those statements today?" Nobody even remembers it. But let me remind the audience of what was said then.
"I would like to quote the speech of the NATO Secretary-General, Manfred Werner, delivered in Brussels on 17 May 1990, when he said: "The fact that we are not prepared to place NATO forces outside German territory gives the Soviet Union a solid security guarantee." Where are these guarantees today?
The undertakings were deceptive, and the red line moved hundreds of kilometers and became a threat. Seven years later, in an assessment issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry in 2014, the ministry noted that "continuous eastward expansion [and] successive waves of NATO expansion [contradict] the guarantees issued by the highest levels" of Western governance.
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| Satellite images of Russian crowds on Ukraine's border |
Hence, the 2015 Russia National Security Strategy Report noted that "the continued expansion of NATO and the steady progress of its military infrastructure towards Russia's borders, both pose a threat to Russia's national security."".
The West made its first pledge to Russia on February 9, 1990, when US Secretary of State James Baker promised Soviet President Gorbachev that if NATO's efforts to withdraw Russian forces from East Germany were approved, NATO would not expand east Germany. Gorbachev recorded in his memoirs that he agreed to Baker's terms "after obtaining pledges that NATO sovereignty and forces would not extend east of the present line.".
Confirms Jack F. Matlock Jr., who was the US ambassador to Russia at the time and was present at the meeting, tells Gorbachev's account, saying in his book Superpower Illusions: "It agrees with my notes of the conversation except that my diary says Baker added (not an inch)".
The day after those talks, according to West German Foreign Ministry documents on February 10, 1990, West German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher told his Soviet counterpart, Eduard Shevardnadze: "On our part… one thing is certain: NATO will not expand to the East.".
has been published"US National Security Archive" actual documents detailing what Gorbachev was promised on December 12, 2017. According to Stephen Cohen, the late American academic and Russia specialist, in his book War With Russia, the documents finally and formally reveal that "the pledges and promises that were broken were much more than It was previously known: All the Western powers involved - the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany themselves - made the same promise to Gorbachev on many occasions and in various assertive ways.
It didn't have to be this way, Putin sympathizers say, and that Putin, like Gorbachev before him at the end of the Cold War, hoped to work for an international community of equals, rather than building blocks, and even suggested that Russia join to NATO membership, according to the site Responsible Statecraft of the United States.
Even in the speech drawing Russia's new red line, Putin was still proposing a cooperative solution. He said that "reaching specific agreements" should take place "in dialogue with the United States and its allies." He added in a kind of diplomatic rhetoric: "We do not demand any special conditions for ourselves and understand that any agreements must take into account the interests of Russia and all Euro-Atlantic countries at the same time.".
However, while this path will be less contentious, the odds of it taking it are slim, as the only assurances issued today come in the form of pledges from the US Secretary of Defense, who recently assured Georgia and Ukraine that the "door is still open" for membership NATO, which continues to irritate Russia greatly.