The drums of war worry Europe... This is what Putin wants to defuse. Will Biden agree and save Ukraine?
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| Russian forces during military exercises near the border with Ukraine, Archives 2021 (Reuters) |
Western reports say that Russia is putting the finishing touches to the invasion of Ukraine at the end of next month, and Moscow denies this, but the escalating military buildup is a fait accompli. Will the Putin-Biden summit succeed in defusing the war?
The situation is now at the border Russian-UkrainianVery similar to the atmosphere that paved the way for the Russian army's invasion of Ukrainian Crimea and its annexation to Russia in 2014, which caused a major crisis and the imposition of economic sanctions by Washington and its allies on Moscow.
And now the scene of the new escalation is the Ukrainian Donbas region, where Russia continues to mobilize tens of thousands of its soldiers and military equipment, and in return, Kiev has pushed the striking force of its armed forces into the region, in what appears to be the last meters before the outbreak of war again.
And amid this charged atmosphere, the Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart, Joe Biden, had a video call today, Tuesday, December 7, will the meeting succeed in defusing the crisis on the Ukrainian border and removing the specter of war hanging over the European continent?
US pressure papers on Russia
A senior US administration official said that Biden would warn Putin of dire economic consequences if Russia went ahead with an attack on Ukraine, adding, in a briefing to reporters, according to Reuters, that the United States was working with European allies on a strong response in the event of a Russian attack on Ukraine, stressing The United States and Europe will impose severe economic sanctions.
"We believe there is a way forward that allows us to send a clear message to Russia that there will be a significant and ongoing cost" in the event of an attack, the official said..
Biden spoke to the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, and Britain on Monday, and they discussed "shared concerns about the Russian military build-up on Ukraine's borders, and the increasingly harsh rhetoric from Russia," affirmed their support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and called on Russia to de-escalate tensions.
Russia denies US media reports of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine and accuses Washington of trying to escalate the situation, while blaming Moscow, without Russia explaining its increasing military buildup on the Ukrainian border.
The US State Department said that Secretary Anthony Blinken had a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, during which he reiterated Washington's "unwavering support" for Ukraine's sovereignty in the face of "Russian aggression".
The two agreed on the need for a peaceful and diplomatic solution to the conflict in the Donbass region and Ukraine to restore full sovereignty over its internationally recognized borders, including Crimea."
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| US President Joe Biden |
Zelensky said in a tweet on Twitter that he and Blinken agreed to continue "joint and coordinated work." While the senior US official said that Russia has a possible diplomatic exit through the Minsk agreement if it so desires, and this agreement had been negotiated in the past to end the war in the Donbass region in Ukraine.
"We encourage Russia to return to dialogue through diplomatic means," the official added, without elaborating on economic sanctions that could be imposed on Russia.
However, a source familiar with the situation told Reuters that the targeting of Putin's inner circle with sanctions was discussed, but no decision was taken. He added that Biden is not expected to go into details of potential measures during his conversation with Putin, but he will warn of the economic costs.
Another person familiar with the situation said the United States and its European allies were considering sanctions against Russia's largest banks. Another option, the source added, includes targeting Russia's ability to convert rubles into dollars and other currencies.
CNN reported that the United States could resort to the extreme step of separating Russia from the international payment system, which is used by banks around the world.
Bloomberg reported that the United States and European allies are considering sanctions targeting the Russian Direct Investment Fund, as well as the country's ability to convert rubles into dollars and other foreign currencies, in the event Putin invades Ukraine.
Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, added that the United States may also limit investors' ability to buy Russian debt in the secondary market, but the White House declined to comment on those media reports.
What does Putin want to not invade Ukraine?
Apart from the Russian denial of any intention to invade Ukrainian lands and annex the Donbass region, this denial was also at the fore in the Russian media in 2014, before the invasion and annexation of Crimea. Naturally, the question here is: Why did Putin take this dangerous military step?
If what happened seven years ago in Crimea still has its repercussions today, and UN resolutions confirm that the territory is Ukrainian, and the Western sanctions imposed on Russia had undeniable negative effects on the Russian economy, then why then repeat the story now in Donbass Territory?
For the picture to be clearer about Russian motives, it is important to stop at the main password here, which is "NATO", as Russian media reports indicate that Putin has set a "red line" regarding the cancellation of any plans by NATO-led by the United States. Inclusion of Ukraine in the alliance and he will seek, during his virtual summit with Biden, to obtain an American promise to this effect.
The story of the "red lines" between Russia and the United States dates back to the end of the Cold War between the former Soviet Union - which was leading the Warsaw Pact - and the Western camp and its military alliance, "NATO" led by the United States.
And take a report for the site responsible StatecraftThe American made this story in a report entitled "Putin draws a new red line to prevent NATO from expanding eastward to Ukraine," as it the revealedDeclassified US, Soviet and European documents recently, US Secretary of State James Baker assured Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990 that NATO would not expand "an inch" east of Germany, and at that time that was Russia's red line.
But America did not keep that promise pledged to Russia more than thirty years ago, as NATO expanded eastward through Hungary, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, and Poland. That distance is about 965 kilometers of broken commitments that brought the United States and NATO to the borders of Ukraine.
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| Russian President Vladimir Putin |
So Putin now wants legally binding guarantees from Biden that Ukraine will not join NATO under any circumstances. And during his meeting with his American counterpart, Anthony Blinken, last Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that NATO was "playing with fire" with its maneuvers near the Russian border and that Moscow was ready to take "retaliatory measures to correct the strategic military balance."
The Western military alliance had promised Ukraine membership in the alliance in 2008 but refused to set a timetable due to concerns about corruption and the implications of the move, which it became clear that Russia would not accept under any circumstances.
Is war imminent then?
Putin wants binding legal guarantees that Ukraine will not be included in NATO, while Biden says he "does not accept red lines from anyone."
Last Wednesday, Stoltenberg criticized the Kremlin, saying that "a threat to a sovereign country like Ukraine is a provocation," adding: "Only Ukraine and 30 NATO allies decide when Ukraine is ready to join NATO. Russia has no veto, not Russia has an opinion, and Russia has no right to create a sphere of influence to try to control its neighbors".
An article was considered for the site responsible Statecraft Stoltenberg's statements are "irresponsible, and represent a blatant challenge to the Russian president," at a time when the drums of war are already beating. The article asked: "What does Stoltenberg expect the Russian bear's reaction when this public challenge is addressed to him? Is it a call for war?"
The picture looks bleak, and diplomatic solutions are shrinking by the hour, according to Western analysts, but this does not mean that war between Russia and Ukraine has become inevitable. As Biden and his allies agreed to provide the guarantees that Putin wants is not difficult or even illogical, as the West already gave it to Russia 30 years ago orally and did not abide by it, so it is natural for Putin to want it written in the form of a legal agreement.
Although defusing the current crisis on the Ukrainian border will not permanently end the differences between Russia and the West, avoiding war between Russia and Ukraine is certainly a positive thing that all parties want, and how to achieve it depends on what may result from the Putin-Biden contact today, Tuesday.
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| Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky |
A senior foreign policy aide to Putin said on Friday that the United States and Russia were finalizing a video call with Biden. In addition to guarantees against NATO's eastward expansion, the aide said, Putin, will seek to impose an embargo on "weapons systems that would threaten us in the territory of neighboring countries, including Ukraine."
The first summit between Putin and Biden, in mid-June, came out almost without tangible results, which is another negative indicator that casts a shadow over their contact on Ukraine, but the risks that may result from reaching a dead end, and thus igniting the war, maybe a deterrent. The two sides are pushing them to reach a compromise, according to a team of analysts.
Can Ukraine repel a Russian invasion?
But if the taboo occurs and the second Biden-Putin summit fails to defuse the crisis, does Ukraine have an army that can counter the attack of the Russian bear if it occurs?
In this context, the website The islandA report on the Russian and Ukrainian armies. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was able to restore its military capabilities and modernize its air, sea, and land forces, which allowed it to bridge the gap with its American competitors, and the ability to produce all kinds of weapons. On the other hand, Ukraine inherited from the Soviet Union most of its military capabilities, with many differences between the strength of the two countries today.
The Russian army inherited a huge military-industrial complex from the Soviet Union. The state invests huge sums of money in military industrialization and technical development of its huge stockpile of weapons.
Russia was among the top 5 countries in the field of military spending at the end of 2019. According to the report of the Stockholm Peace Research Institute(SIPRI) - which was issued in April 2020 - Russia ranks third in the list of countries spending the most on armaments, with an annual budget of about 64 billion dollars.
Russia also ranks second in the world in the volume of arms exports abroad, and its sales this year amounted to 13.7 billion dollars, according to data from Rosoboron export. (ROSOBORON EXPORT), which is responsible for Russian arms exports. In 2021, the number of personnel in the Russian army reached about 900,000 soldiers.
The Russian strategic nuclear forces include 517 strategic delivery vehicles for the deployment of nuclear weapons, intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarines, and heavy bombers equipped with 1,420 nuclear warheads.
Russia also has 12 nuclear submarines carrying strategic missiles, 7 submarines carrying cruise missiles, 10 multi-use atomic submarines, 21 submarines operating on diesel torpedoes, an aircraft carrier, 4 corvettes, 15 frigates, 125 patrol, and coast guard ships, 11 destroyers, and 48 landing ships. With a population of 150,000.
The number of Russian Air Force personnel is about 170,000, and these operate more than 3,600 units of military equipment, in addition to 833 storage units, according to 2019 data. The Russian Air Force owns about 4,500 aircraft, including 789 fighters, 742 attack aircraft, and 429 cargo aircraft. The military, 520 training aircraft, 130 special mission aircraft, and 1,540 helicopters, including 538 attack helicopters.
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| Ukraine is preparing for a possible Russian invasion of its territory |
As for the Russian ground forces, they include 13,000 tanks, about 27,000 armored vehicles, 6,540 self-propelled guns, 4,465 field artillery, 3,860 rocket launchers, 450 minesweepers, and several 350,000 members.
On the other hand, Ukraine had inherited from the Soviet Union most of its current bases and forces, and the strength of the Ukrainian army was about 455,000 soldiers in the year of independence in 1991, then it gradually declined to about 120,000 in 2013.
But the events of 2014, which Kiev describes as "Russian aggression" against Crimea and the Donbass region, restored interest and support for the Ukrainian forces, so its budget allocated for this purpose increased to about 6% of the 2021 budget, by about $9.4 billion, while this budget did not exceed 1% before 2014.
Ukraine has increased its forces to about 204 thousand soldiers, more than half of whom are contracted, with 46 thousand military-administrative employees, in addition to other supportive forces, such as the border guards (about 53 thousand) and the National Guard (60 thousand).).
Today, the Ukrainian forces consist of 6 branches, which are the ground, naval, and air forces, as well as the offensive (airborne) forces, and the special forces, the numbers of which are unknown. In 2016, Ukraine created the "Unified Forces", in which several military and security units participate, to fight Russian militants and separatists in the east of the country.
Ukraine's ground forces number about 145,000 soldiers and possess 11,435 armored vehicles, 2,430 tanks, 2,815 artillery, and 550 rocket launchers.
As for the Ukrainian Air Force, its number is about 45,000, and it has 285 aircraft, including 42 fighters, 111 multi-purpose helicopters, and 34 attack helicopters. The sea is one of the most prominent military weaknesses of Ukraine, and the biggest difference that distinguishes Russia from it. Its naval forces include 25 naval units, including only one frigate, and the rest are observation and reconnaissance ships.
To fill this gap in the balance of power between it and Russia, Ukraine relies on Western military aid, especially the United States, which has allocated more than $4 billion to Ukraine since 2014. Kiev directs a large part of the defense budget and plans to buy ships from France and Britain and to conduct exercises in the Black Sea.